Dryland ecosystems are sensitive to the interactive effects of precipitation and temperature, landscape and environmental factors, disturbances and management, and vegetation characteristics. Our research seeks to identify the mechanisms that govern these ecological systems.

Extreme events are not just tornadoes and hurricanes! The desert, woodland and forest ecosystems that we study can be influenced in meaningful ways by regular variation in climate, conditions that persistover multiple years, and also by patterns of extreme climate events. We are interested in determining how the characteristics of these events portends to their ecological significance, and developing ways for scientists and land managers to prepare for multiple climate possibilities across the diverse landscapes that they work in.

Forecasts call for a 50% decline in climatic favorability for juvenile ponderosa pine survival by the end of the century, without adding in the effects of additional disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks. Along with a group of experts in the field, our lab is working to understand the mechanisms and consequences of declining regeneration in semiarid forests and woodlands. Even more importantly, we are working to determine how human actions can help to combat and limit these declines.

Mechanistic models are a valuable tool for making ecological predictions. Our lab utilizes both low-dimensional and complex ecosystem water balance models to sharpen our understanding of ecological responses to environmental change across the diverse landscapes of western North America.

Climate change is going to replace the world as we know it with one that has a slightly- to substantially-differing climate. We can predict and prepare for future and ongoing climate change using different scientific approaches and perspectives. Identifying and forecasting ecologically meaningful changes in climate is one of our favorite aspects of scientific research.